We're 62% (http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/) ATS and doing very poorly with our Over/Unders. In addition, there is a correction factor that is involved in our Over/Unders which may not be such a good assumption. We've temporarily suspended our over/unders.
- Happy
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
NFL Handicappers Week Eight Free Picks Are Ready
Our Handicappers week eight free NFL picks are now ready. We've also posted our Expectation Value Probability Distribution for week eight.
Thanks,
- Happy
Thanks,
- Happy
Friday, October 23, 2009
New Page Format
We reformatted our week seven free NFL picks page. We're thinking of doing our entire NFL Oddsmakers Free Picks site with the new format. Currently most of the pages (look at past week's picks) are still do the old format. Which do you prefer?
Other ideas for how to make our site more attractive / user-friendly?
Thanks,
Happy
Other ideas for how to make our site more attractive / user-friendly?
Thanks,
Happy
Monday, October 19, 2009
The Advantage of the Over Under Bet
Before I created my NFL Predictive Model for forecasting the outcomes of NFL games, I always thought betting the Over/Under was just not all that interesting. What really matters is who is going to win the game, right? Coming off NFL week six where my over/under bet units were 5/5 (and my line bet units were only 3/6) I thought it might be a good time to sing the praises of the over-under bet.
The over bet is one bet that can be put in the bag before the game is over. In fact, during the Saints vs Giants game I’d already won one of my best bets before half-time! The under can start looking pretty sure by midway through the fourth quarter. Recently examples include under in the Bills vs Browns and under in the Chiefs vs Redskins (both games in which our model best bet the under).
By contrast, the soonest you can count your un-hatched chickens in a spread bet is at the end of regulation when you’ve taken a huge underdog (we notched the Bills vs Jets as a victory at the begging of overtime because we had 9.5 points).
On a more philosophical note, the OU is also more a reflection of the character of the game. We were glad our model took the over in the NO vs NYG game because we thought the game pitted great offenses against decent defenses and that it would be a shootout. As far as who would win, who knew? The model has NO by 2.7 points but with zero confidence.
On a more practical note, adding the Over Under to our offerings has increased our bet-worthy events from 3-5 per week to 6 – 10 per week. The increase in bet-worthy events narrows the probability distribution of our expectation values, increasing our odds of a winning week. Note that even though our individual weeks range from 63% - 70% odds of winning, YTD we have a 76.5% chance of winning (and each event is only 55% - 60%). The more events we can add, the faster we narrow the distribution around our 110% expectation value – making winning a more certain long-term outcome.
The over bet is one bet that can be put in the bag before the game is over. In fact, during the Saints vs Giants game I’d already won one of my best bets before half-time! The under can start looking pretty sure by midway through the fourth quarter. Recently examples include under in the Bills vs Browns and under in the Chiefs vs Redskins (both games in which our model best bet the under).
By contrast, the soonest you can count your un-hatched chickens in a spread bet is at the end of regulation when you’ve taken a huge underdog (we notched the Bills vs Jets as a victory at the begging of overtime because we had 9.5 points).
On a more philosophical note, the OU is also more a reflection of the character of the game. We were glad our model took the over in the NO vs NYG game because we thought the game pitted great offenses against decent defenses and that it would be a shootout. As far as who would win, who knew? The model has NO by 2.7 points but with zero confidence.
On a more practical note, adding the Over Under to our offerings has increased our bet-worthy events from 3-5 per week to 6 – 10 per week. The increase in bet-worthy events narrows the probability distribution of our expectation values, increasing our odds of a winning week. Note that even though our individual weeks range from 63% - 70% odds of winning, YTD we have a 76.5% chance of winning (and each event is only 55% - 60%). The more events we can add, the faster we narrow the distribution around our 110% expectation value – making winning a more certain long-term outcome.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Converting from a money-line to a point-spread
I've seen many people attempt to answer the question, "How do I convert a point-spread to a money-line?" (or conversely, "How do I convert a money-line to a point-spread?" The answers I've seen given have been unequivocally bad; but that’s because the correct answer is not simple, and people like simple answers.
To understand that a simple plug-and-play formula won’t do the trick, just check out the lines at your favorite sportsbook. I checked betus.com at 8:00 PM on the 16th of October and found the following lines:
St. Louis +9.5 -110 (points) or +400 (moneyline)
Jacksonville -9.5 -110 (points) or -500 (moneyline)
Buffalo +9.5 -110 (points) or +350 (moneyline)
NY Jets -9.5 -110 (points) or -450 (moneyline)
From this it is clear that there is more involved than simply knowing the point-spread to determine the moneyline (or more than just knowing the odds to determine the pointspread).
The function that is used to convert from a pointspread to a moneyline is the normal distribution function. This function must be integrated from negative infinity to the point-spread to determine the probability of an outcome. In all cases the mean is zero. If the pointspread is -9.5 that is the value used for x. The value of the integral from –∞ to -9.5 is also a function of the standard deviation; and this is what varies from game to game.
We can back-calculate the standard deviation the casino used by iterating (such as tools goal-seek from MS Excel). In the game where Jacksonville is -500 you have to lay $500 to win $100. But remember the 10% juice. Without it you’d only have to lay $450 to win $100. This means that Jacksonville should win 4.5 times more often than it loses. Neglecting ties this means that Jacksonville should win 4.5 / 5.5 of the contests or 81.8%. Taking the inverse of the integrated normal distribution function (=norminv(0.818, 0, guess) in MS Excel) you can change your guess (using tools goal-seek) to get a point-spread of 9.5. In the case of the Jacksonville vs St. Louis game you’ll find that the sportsbook used a standard deviation of 10.46. You can now verify this by using the same standard deviation but a negative spread; you’ll find St. Louis has a 18.2% chance of winning. One divided by 18.2% = 5.5. This means that the casino without juice would give you $450 winnings for every $100 bet (you get $550 off $100 18.2% of the time). Since they take their juice off your winnings, the line should be 90% of 450 or 405. Note that they’re actually offering +400. I have a feeling rounding errors tend to favor the house!
A similar exercise will reveal that the standard deviation used in the Bills vs Jets game is 11.2. I would have simplified to assume that the standard deviation tracks the over/under, but that is clearly not the case here. The casino most likely has team specific standard deviations (due to a more complex model than mine).
This brings up a separate, but related issue. If the casino’s model is more complex than mine, how can I expect to win in the long run? The key is that I don’t have to be smarter than the sportsbook. The book is balancing their desire for profit (holding their line) with risk mitigation (splitting the betting public evenly). If I have a decent model (I’m right greater than 52.4% of the time) I can win in the long run. Currently we’re running 58% season to date.
To understand that a simple plug-and-play formula won’t do the trick, just check out the lines at your favorite sportsbook. I checked betus.com at 8:00 PM on the 16th of October and found the following lines:
St. Louis +9.5 -110 (points) or +400 (moneyline)
Jacksonville -9.5 -110 (points) or -500 (moneyline)
Buffalo +9.5 -110 (points) or +350 (moneyline)
NY Jets -9.5 -110 (points) or -450 (moneyline)
From this it is clear that there is more involved than simply knowing the point-spread to determine the moneyline (or more than just knowing the odds to determine the pointspread).
The function that is used to convert from a pointspread to a moneyline is the normal distribution function. This function must be integrated from negative infinity to the point-spread to determine the probability of an outcome. In all cases the mean is zero. If the pointspread is -9.5 that is the value used for x. The value of the integral from –∞ to -9.5 is also a function of the standard deviation; and this is what varies from game to game.
We can back-calculate the standard deviation the casino used by iterating (such as tools goal-seek from MS Excel). In the game where Jacksonville is -500 you have to lay $500 to win $100. But remember the 10% juice. Without it you’d only have to lay $450 to win $100. This means that Jacksonville should win 4.5 times more often than it loses. Neglecting ties this means that Jacksonville should win 4.5 / 5.5 of the contests or 81.8%. Taking the inverse of the integrated normal distribution function (=norminv(0.818, 0, guess) in MS Excel) you can change your guess (using tools goal-seek) to get a point-spread of 9.5. In the case of the Jacksonville vs St. Louis game you’ll find that the sportsbook used a standard deviation of 10.46. You can now verify this by using the same standard deviation but a negative spread; you’ll find St. Louis has a 18.2% chance of winning. One divided by 18.2% = 5.5. This means that the casino without juice would give you $450 winnings for every $100 bet (you get $550 off $100 18.2% of the time). Since they take their juice off your winnings, the line should be 90% of 450 or 405. Note that they’re actually offering +400. I have a feeling rounding errors tend to favor the house!
A similar exercise will reveal that the standard deviation used in the Bills vs Jets game is 11.2. I would have simplified to assume that the standard deviation tracks the over/under, but that is clearly not the case here. The casino most likely has team specific standard deviations (due to a more complex model than mine).
This brings up a separate, but related issue. If the casino’s model is more complex than mine, how can I expect to win in the long run? The key is that I don’t have to be smarter than the sportsbook. The book is balancing their desire for profit (holding their line) with risk mitigation (splitting the betting public evenly). If I have a decent model (I’m right greater than 52.4% of the time) I can win in the long run. Currently we’re running 58% season to date.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Happy's Picks for NFL Week Six - Statistical Model Based and Expectation Values Explained
We've updated our NFL Free Pick Results vs Expectation Values to include Week five results.
We’ve also now posted our NFL week six free picks which include five (5) bet worthy Week 6 NFL lines and three (3) bet worthy NFL Week Six over unders. There are three best bets (Ten +9.5, over 47 in NO vs NYG, and Under 37 in WAS vs KC). The expectation value distribution has returned to a near normal distribution but the predicted ROI of 106.6% is the lowest of the season. Don't be too discouraged though; this is in part just because we've become more conservative in using an adjusted cumulative distribution function as our odds of winning each event.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 5 we were 64% on bet units (58% season to date). We are 11/16 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predicted outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple sportsbooks. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
We’ve also now posted our NFL week six free picks which include five (5) bet worthy Week 6 NFL lines and three (3) bet worthy NFL Week Six over unders. There are three best bets (Ten +9.5, over 47 in NO vs NYG, and Under 37 in WAS vs KC). The expectation value distribution has returned to a near normal distribution but the predicted ROI of 106.6% is the lowest of the season. Don't be too discouraged though; this is in part just because we've become more conservative in using an adjusted cumulative distribution function as our odds of winning each event.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 5 we were 64% on bet units (58% season to date). We are 11/16 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predicted outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple sportsbooks. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Week Five Another Profitable Week - Free NFL Picks from bestofblog.net
NFL Week Five bet units are in the bag; we finished 7/11 on our bet units for the week. It looked like Houston would pull it off and make us 10/11 (we had three units on them), but still a respectable week for us. It brings us to a 109.5% ROI for the 2009 NFL Season so far and completes our fourth winning week out of five.
We want to give props to the first other statistically based pick system we've seen on the net, advancednflstats.com. I guess they're technically a competitor, but its just refreshing to find someone other than us posting useful statistically based probabilistic data on NFL outcomes.
We are able to and would like to convert their probabilities to ATS predictions; we're awaiting their permission to do so (or they may just choose to do it themselves). Anyhow, we'll post week six picks on Wednesday or Thursday.
- Happy
We want to give props to the first other statistically based pick system we've seen on the net, advancednflstats.com. I guess they're technically a competitor, but its just refreshing to find someone other than us posting useful statistically based probabilistic data on NFL outcomes.
We are able to and would like to convert their probabilities to ATS predictions; we're awaiting their permission to do so (or they may just choose to do it themselves). Anyhow, we'll post week six picks on Wednesday or Thursday.
- Happy
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Our NFL Week 5 Free Picks Are Now Available
We’ve now posted our NFL week five free picks which include three (3) bet worthy Week 3 NFL lines and two (2) bet worthy over unders. There are three strong best bets (Minnesota -9.5, Houston +5.5, Under 40.5 in the Buf vs Cle) which has resulted in a less smooth than normal distribution but a good predicted ROI of 113.7%.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 4 we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date). We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 4 we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date). We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Is parlay betting wise?
Parlay betting can be exciting, but is it a smart bet? The simple answer is that it’s irrelevant. Parlay betting essentially multiplies your action. This means that if you’re a winning player, you’ll win more and if you’re a losing player, you’ll lose more. It does increase the standard of deviation which makes it a riskier bet but potentially more lucrative. Over the long haul it won’t make a winner lose and it won’t make a losing player win.
The simplest way to envision how parlay betting multiplies your action is to imagine a two event parlay where you lay ten dollars down. The casino sees this as one certain bet and one conditional bet. If the first event goes in your favor, you lay $19 down on the second event. If the 1st event doesn’t go in your favor, you do not bet on the 2nd event.
Again simplifying, suppose you win the 1st event 50% of the time. On average you will lay $9.50 down on the 2nd event. This means that your $10 bet got $19.50 worth of action. A three team parlay would get $28.53 in action, four teams would get $37.10, etc.
If you are winning 50% of your bets, this increase in action increases your losses. A 10% juice casino could expect to earn $0.50 off a single $10 wager with you. A four team parlay would give them $1.85.
On the other hand, if you are a winning player, increasing your action can increase your win rate (but also increases the variability). If you are winning 57% of your wagers, a $10 straight bet has a positive expectation of $0.83. A $10 four-team parlay would give you an expectation of $3.76.
It might seem then that you’d always take really deep parlay bets if you’re a winning player. The problem with that is that the standard of deviation will often see you broke before you hit. Bankroll management and appetite for risk are key considerations when considering parlay betting.
That notwithstanding, it can be a nice way to increase action without laying out too much cash up front. Were I able to bet I’d probably take a lot of two & three team parlays.
http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/2009_YTD_nfl_analysis.html
The simplest way to envision how parlay betting multiplies your action is to imagine a two event parlay where you lay ten dollars down. The casino sees this as one certain bet and one conditional bet. If the first event goes in your favor, you lay $19 down on the second event. If the 1st event doesn’t go in your favor, you do not bet on the 2nd event.
Again simplifying, suppose you win the 1st event 50% of the time. On average you will lay $9.50 down on the 2nd event. This means that your $10 bet got $19.50 worth of action. A three team parlay would get $28.53 in action, four teams would get $37.10, etc.
If you are winning 50% of your bets, this increase in action increases your losses. A 10% juice casino could expect to earn $0.50 off a single $10 wager with you. A four team parlay would give them $1.85.
On the other hand, if you are a winning player, increasing your action can increase your win rate (but also increases the variability). If you are winning 57% of your wagers, a $10 straight bet has a positive expectation of $0.83. A $10 four-team parlay would give you an expectation of $3.76.
It might seem then that you’d always take really deep parlay bets if you’re a winning player. The problem with that is that the standard of deviation will often see you broke before you hit. Bankroll management and appetite for risk are key considerations when considering parlay betting.
That notwithstanding, it can be a nice way to increase action without laying out too much cash up front. Were I able to bet I’d probably take a lot of two & three team parlays.
http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/2009_YTD_nfl_analysis.html
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Week Three Picks Are Ready
We posted our week three picks tonight. For the first time we included over / under analysis.
Our best bets are Carolina with the points and Under on the Philadelphia vs KC game.
We are 68% on bet units (64% overall) through the first two weeks of the 2009 season.
Our best bets are Carolina with the points and Under on the Philadelphia vs KC game.
We are 68% on bet units (64% overall) through the first two weeks of the 2009 season.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
69% in week 2 (68% for the season)
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Free NFL Week Two Picks - Plus Week One Wrap-up
Our weighted score for our Week One Picks was 67% (best bets were 100%) and our overall score was 62%. We’ve now added our Week Two Picks. As with all our picks, they’re concise (one table), free, and require no hoops to jump through (registrations, etc.).
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generated predicted outcomes using three different systems and compared them to over a dozen casino lines. We used the delta (large is good) between the predictions and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also computed the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
The summary for all of our Free NFL Picks includes our cumulative results.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generated predicted outcomes using three different systems and compared them to over a dozen casino lines. We used the delta (large is good) between the predictions and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also computed the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
The summary for all of our Free NFL Picks includes our cumulative results.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
NFL Week One Picks 2009 - Statistically Significant
We created a statistical model that generated predicted outcomes using three different systems and compared them to over a dozen casino lines. We used the delta (large is good) between the predictions and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors for our Week One Picks. There are two best bets identified, four additional bet-worthy games noted, and predicted outcomes for the other games also listed.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Philadelphia Night Life
We have added a local page for Philadelphia Night Life. We've read the reviews on yelp, 10best, and citysearch to find the most consistently positively rated night clubs, karaoke bars, sports bars, casinos, tapas bars, and more.
- HappyBreath.Net is a breathalyzer retailer serving several Pennsylvania cities, including Philadelphia.
- HappyBreath.Net is a breathalyzer retailer serving several Pennsylvania cities, including Philadelphia.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Get the most alcohol for your money (or calories)
Want to get the most alcohol for your money? Check out the Low Cost Mixed Drink Recipes at HappyBreath.Net or use their drink cost analyzer.
Curious how many calories are in your mixed drink? HappyBreath.Net has a database of drink ingredient calories that can be used in the mixed drink calorie analyzer . We also have the beer calorie content and beer percent alcohol for over 200 beers!
Don’t want to do the work yourself? Now HappyBreath has begun to process Drink Recipes for Calories and Cost. We’re taking requests, otherwise we’ll process in order of the top 100 on idrink.com.
Curious how many calories are in your mixed drink? HappyBreath.Net has a database of drink ingredient calories that can be used in the mixed drink calorie analyzer . We also have the beer calorie content and beer percent alcohol for over 200 beers!
Don’t want to do the work yourself? Now HappyBreath has begun to process Drink Recipes for Calories and Cost. We’re taking requests, otherwise we’ll process in order of the top 100 on idrink.com.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Alcohol Tools From HappyBreath.Net
http://www.happybreath.net/tools/
We've added several new tools. The latest will tell you what percentage of a drink's cost are due to sin taxes and it will predict the cost of the same drink in another state.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Tool Queries State DUI Laws and Consequence
http://www.happybreath.net/tools/QueryStateDUILaws.php - Tool will query database of state DUI laws & consequences.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Drink - Think - Link for July 29th, 2009
Drink Raspberry Long Island Iced Tea. Think keep cool. Link Drink Calorie Table. http://www.happybreath.net/blog/072909.html
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
New layout for Think - Drink - Link
We now have all of our posts linked to on each page. The latest post (http://www.happybreath.net/blog/071509.html) has Buttery Nipple as the drink, quality ice as the think, and http://www.idrink.com as the link.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Drink - Think - Link for April 26th, 2009
Drink
Today’s drink is the Trailer Park Girl. The drink tastes a bit like grape Kool-Aid ® and goes down just as smooth. It doesn’t taste like it has any alcohol in it which can be both its charm and its danger.
1 oz Monarch ® vodka
1 oz Grape Pucker ®
1 oz Triple Sec
½ oz Sweet and Sour
The drink is normally shaken with ice and then served straight up in a martini glass. It’s a bit of an oxymoron, but for a more upscale Trailer Park Girl substitute Chambord ® for Grape Pucker ® and Grey Goose ® for Monarch ®.
Think
Ever want a nice buzz on a work-night? The best policy here is to have the alcohol enter your bloodstream quickly. This will minimize the amount of alcohol you need to consume to get a buzz and will also give you time to sober up before bed. In this circumstance be sure to drink on an empty stomach. A Martini, a Manhattan, or a shot of Tequila are great. If you prefer a mixer, carbonation causes the alcohol to enter your bloodstream faster. Have one or two drinks before dinner and several glasses of water after dinner. You’ll have a pleasant evening and no hangover the next day.
Link
(http://www.madd.org)
MADD is the mother of all drunken driving links. MADD is currently pushing legislation to force breathalyzer interlocks on all vehicles. While this may overstep the role of government, it does illustrate a key point. Experts believe breathalyzers can play a vital role in reducing the tragic impacts of drunken driving.
Like the drink – think – link features? Visit us at http://www.happybreath.net and click “Contact Us” to let us know!
Today’s drink is the Trailer Park Girl. The drink tastes a bit like grape Kool-Aid ® and goes down just as smooth. It doesn’t taste like it has any alcohol in it which can be both its charm and its danger.
1 oz Monarch ® vodka
1 oz Grape Pucker ®
1 oz Triple Sec
½ oz Sweet and Sour
The drink is normally shaken with ice and then served straight up in a martini glass. It’s a bit of an oxymoron, but for a more upscale Trailer Park Girl substitute Chambord ® for Grape Pucker ® and Grey Goose ® for Monarch ®.
Think
Ever want a nice buzz on a work-night? The best policy here is to have the alcohol enter your bloodstream quickly. This will minimize the amount of alcohol you need to consume to get a buzz and will also give you time to sober up before bed. In this circumstance be sure to drink on an empty stomach. A Martini, a Manhattan, or a shot of Tequila are great. If you prefer a mixer, carbonation causes the alcohol to enter your bloodstream faster. Have one or two drinks before dinner and several glasses of water after dinner. You’ll have a pleasant evening and no hangover the next day.
Link
(http://www.madd.org)
MADD is the mother of all drunken driving links. MADD is currently pushing legislation to force breathalyzer interlocks on all vehicles. While this may overstep the role of government, it does illustrate a key point. Experts believe breathalyzers can play a vital role in reducing the tragic impacts of drunken driving.
Like the drink – think – link features? Visit us at http://www.happybreath.net and click “Contact Us” to let us know!
Drink - Think - Link for April 25th, 2009
Drink
Today’s drink is the Manhattan. While there are many variants, our suggested version comes from Colleen Graham on About.com:
2 oz Jim Beam ® Rye whiskey
½ oz Martini & Rossi ® sweet vermouth
2-3 dashes Angostura ® bitters
Maraschino cherry for garnish
Other whiskeys can be used depending on your taste and your budget. The perfect Manhattan uses equal parts dry and sweet Vermouth.
Think
Anyone who has every played pool or darts while drinking probably understands the level of optimum drunkenness. Your game improves to a point as you drink. But before long looseness gives way to sloppiness and your game begins to deteriorate. Understanding this, you may not be surprised to learn that the level of optimum drunkenness applies to more than just pool and darts.
Link
(http://www.denverpost.com/ci_12089711?source=bb)
Juan Jose Prieto-Gonzalez kills his seven year old son in a drunk driving accident.
Like the drink – think – link features? Visit us at http://www.happybreath.net and click “Contact Us” to let us know!
Today’s drink is the Manhattan. While there are many variants, our suggested version comes from Colleen Graham on About.com:
2 oz Jim Beam ® Rye whiskey
½ oz Martini & Rossi ® sweet vermouth
2-3 dashes Angostura ® bitters
Maraschino cherry for garnish
Other whiskeys can be used depending on your taste and your budget. The perfect Manhattan uses equal parts dry and sweet Vermouth.
Think
Anyone who has every played pool or darts while drinking probably understands the level of optimum drunkenness. Your game improves to a point as you drink. But before long looseness gives way to sloppiness and your game begins to deteriorate. Understanding this, you may not be surprised to learn that the level of optimum drunkenness applies to more than just pool and darts.
Link
(http://www.denverpost.com/ci_12089711?source=bb)
Juan Jose Prieto-Gonzalez kills his seven year old son in a drunk driving accident.
Like the drink – think – link features? Visit us at http://www.happybreath.net and click “Contact Us” to let us know!
Friday, April 24, 2009
Drink - Think - Link | April 24th, 2009
Today’s drink is the melon-ball.
A classic that taste’s surprisingly like fresh Honeydew the standard recipe calls for:
2 oz Midori® melon liqueur
1 oz Absolut ® vodka
4 oz Dole ® pineapple juice
The economy version substitutes Dekuyper ® melon liqueur, Monarch ® vodka, and store brand pineapple juice. The foo-foo version, the fuzzy melon-ball, uses peach schnapps in place of vodka. The alcoholic’s version uses equal parts of vodka, melon liqueur, and pineapple juice.
The think (thought) for the day is the economics of drinking out.
Saving money for a cab is relatively easy. Assume there are two people in your party. The cost of a cab one-way is most likely only equal to the cost of 2-3 drinks in total. This means that if you can each avoid 1-2 drinks at bar prices, you’ve paid for your ride home. You can do this by pre-drinking (each have 1-2 drinks before you head out). Another solid option is the 151-coke. In most bars this will cost you the same or 50 cents more than a well drink but you’ll only need half as many to have the same effect.
Today’s link is the story of Jeffrey Perrotte (http://www.drinkdriveprison.com/)
Jeff reaches out from prison in California, where he was convicted to serve a life sentence for killing someone while driving drunk.
_______________________________________________________________
Like the drink – think – link features? Visit us at http://www.happybreath.net/ and click “Contact Us” to let us know!
A classic that taste’s surprisingly like fresh Honeydew the standard recipe calls for:
2 oz Midori® melon liqueur
1 oz Absolut ® vodka
4 oz Dole ® pineapple juice
The economy version substitutes Dekuyper ® melon liqueur, Monarch ® vodka, and store brand pineapple juice. The foo-foo version, the fuzzy melon-ball, uses peach schnapps in place of vodka. The alcoholic’s version uses equal parts of vodka, melon liqueur, and pineapple juice.
The think (thought) for the day is the economics of drinking out.
Saving money for a cab is relatively easy. Assume there are two people in your party. The cost of a cab one-way is most likely only equal to the cost of 2-3 drinks in total. This means that if you can each avoid 1-2 drinks at bar prices, you’ve paid for your ride home. You can do this by pre-drinking (each have 1-2 drinks before you head out). Another solid option is the 151-coke. In most bars this will cost you the same or 50 cents more than a well drink but you’ll only need half as many to have the same effect.
Today’s link is the story of Jeffrey Perrotte (http://www.drinkdriveprison.com/)
Jeff reaches out from prison in California, where he was convicted to serve a life sentence for killing someone while driving drunk.
_______________________________________________________________
Like the drink – think – link features? Visit us at http://www.happybreath.net/ and click “Contact Us” to let us know!
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