Our weighted score for our Week One Picks was 67% (best bets were 100%) and our overall score was 62%. We’ve now added our Week Two Picks. As with all our picks, they’re concise (one table), free, and require no hoops to jump through (registrations, etc.).
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generated predicted outcomes using three different systems and compared them to over a dozen casino lines. We used the delta (large is good) between the predictions and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also computed the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
The summary for all of our Free NFL Picks includes our cumulative results.
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