We've updated our NFL Free Pick Results vs Expectation Values to include Week five results.
We’ve also now posted our NFL week six free picks which include five (5) bet worthy Week 6 NFL lines and three (3) bet worthy NFL Week Six over unders. There are three best bets (Ten +9.5, over 47 in NO vs NYG, and Under 37 in WAS vs KC). The expectation value distribution has returned to a near normal distribution but the predicted ROI of 106.6% is the lowest of the season. Don't be too discouraged though; this is in part just because we've become more conservative in using an adjusted cumulative distribution function as our odds of winning each event.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 5 we were 64% on bet units (58% season to date). We are 11/16 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predicted outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple sportsbooks. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
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