We’ve now posted our NFL week five free picks which include three (3) bet worthy Week 3 NFL lines and two (2) bet worthy over unders. There are three strong best bets (Minnesota -9.5, Houston +5.5, Under 40.5 in the Buf vs Cle) which has resulted in a less smooth than normal distribution but a good predicted ROI of 113.7%.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 4 we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date). We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
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