NFL Week Five bet units are in the bag; we finished 7/11 on our bet units for the week. It looked like Houston would pull it off and make us 10/11 (we had three units on them), but still a respectable week for us. It brings us to a 109.5% ROI for the 2009 NFL Season so far and completes our fourth winning week out of five.
We want to give props to the first other statistically based pick system we've seen on the net, advancednflstats.com. I guess they're technically a competitor, but its just refreshing to find someone other than us posting useful statistically based probabilistic data on NFL outcomes.
We are able to and would like to convert their probabilities to ATS predictions; we're awaiting their permission to do so (or they may just choose to do it themselves). Anyhow, we'll post week six picks on Wednesday or Thursday.
- Happy
Showing posts with label normal distribution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label normal distribution. Show all posts
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Our NFL Week 5 Free Picks Are Now Available
We’ve now posted our NFL week five free picks which include three (3) bet worthy Week 3 NFL lines and two (2) bet worthy over unders. There are three strong best bets (Minnesota -9.5, Houston +5.5, Under 40.5 in the Buf vs Cle) which has resulted in a less smooth than normal distribution but a good predicted ROI of 113.7%.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 4 we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date). We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During NFL Week 4 we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date). We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.
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