Our NFL Week 5 Free Picks Are Now Available

We’ve now posted our NFL week five free picks which include three (3) bet worthy Week 3 NFL lines and two (2) bet worthy over unders. There are three strong best bets (Minnesota -9.5, Houston +5.5, Under 40.5 in the Buf vs Cle) which has resulted in a less smooth than normal distribution but a good predicted ROI of 113.7%.

Our Free NFL picks require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.

During NFL Week 4 we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date). We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.

Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines. We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.

We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.

For more details, be sure to visit Happy’s Free NFL Picks.

Is parlay betting wise?

Parlay betting can be exciting, but is it a smart bet? The simple answer is that it’s irrelevant. Parlay betting essentially multiplies your action. This means that if you’re a winning player, you’ll win more and if you’re a losing player, you’ll lose more. It does increase the standard of deviation which makes it a riskier bet but potentially more lucrative. Over the long haul it won’t make a winner lose and it won’t make a losing player win.

The simplest way to envision how parlay betting multiplies your action is to imagine a two event parlay where you lay ten dollars down. The casino sees this as one certain bet and one conditional bet. If the first event goes in your favor, you lay $19 down on the second event. If the 1st event doesn’t go in your favor, you do not bet on the 2nd event.

Again simplifying, suppose you win the 1st event 50% of the time. On average you will lay $9.50 down on the 2nd event. This means that your $10 bet got $19.50 worth of action. A three team parlay would get $28.53 in action, four teams would get $37.10, etc.

If you are winning 50% of your bets, this increase in action increases your losses. A 10% juice casino could expect to earn $0.50 off a single $10 wager with you. A four team parlay would give them $1.85.

On the other hand, if you are a winning player, increasing your action can increase your win rate (but also increases the variability). If you are winning 57% of your wagers, a $10 straight bet has a positive expectation of $0.83. A $10 four-team parlay would give you an expectation of $3.76.

It might seem then that you’d always take really deep parlay bets if you’re a winning player. The problem with that is that the standard of deviation will often see you broke before you hit. Bankroll management and appetite for risk are key considerations when considering parlay betting.

That notwithstanding, it can be a nice way to increase action without laying out too much cash up front. Were I able to bet I’d probably take a lot of two & three team parlays.

http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/2009_YTD_nfl_analysis.html

Week Three Picks Are Ready

We posted our week three picks tonight. For the first time we included over / under analysis.

Our best bets are Carolina with the points and Under on the Philadelphia vs KC game.

We are 68% on bet units (64% overall) through the first two weeks of the 2009 season.

69% in week 2 (68% for the season)

We're now 68% on our bet units for the season. We were 6/9 in week one and we're 9/13 in week two. So far, so good, with our statistical model.

Free NFL Week Two Picks - Plus Week One Wrap-up

Our weighted score for our Week One Picks was 67% (best bets were 100%) and our overall score was 62%. We’ve now added our Week Two Picks. As with all our picks, they’re concise (one table), free, and require no hoops to jump through (registrations, etc.).

Our picks are based on a statistical model that generated predicted outcomes using three different systems and compared them to over a dozen casino lines. We used the delta (large is good) between the predictions and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.

We also computed the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success. You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice. Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.

The summary for all of our Free NFL Picks includes our cumulative results.

NFL Week One Picks 2009 - Statistically Significant

We created a statistical model that generated predicted outcomes using three different systems and compared them to over a dozen casino lines. We used the delta (large is good) between the predictions and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors for our Week One Picks. There are two best bets identified, four additional bet-worthy games noted, and predicted outcomes for the other games also listed.

Philadelphia Night Life

We have added a local page for Philadelphia Night Life. We've read the reviews on yelp, 10best, and citysearch to find the most consistently positively rated night clubs, karaoke bars, sports bars, casinos, tapas bars, and more.

- HappyBreath.Net is a breathalyzer retailer serving several Pennsylvania cities, including Philadelphia.